Analysis of dispersal probability of genetically modified maize pollen using the hysplit model [Análisis de la probabilidad de dispersión de polen de maíz genéticamente modificado usando el modelo hysplit]
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abstract
The development of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) is an efficient alternative for plague control in the agricultural sector, but their application in maize crops (Zea mays L.) has generated preoccupation regarding the protection of the genetic wealth of wild relatives. Therefore, evaluations of these types of crops are directed at controlling probable pollen dispersals of Genetically Modified (GM) maize towards wild relatives. Although the values for isolation distances are considered as parameters to establish biosafety criteria, it is necessary to further support the distances adopted. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze spatially the dispersal of GM maize pollen particles. For this purpose, historical data of authorized releases of GM maize for the year 2010 in the state of Sinaloa (México) were used, as well as data regarding flowering, wind speed and direction, temperature and relative humidity in the air. Due to the feasibility of simulating the dispersal and deposition of atmospheric particles in long distances and the high resolution of meteorological data, the HYSPLIT model was used to develop progressive simulations of pollen dispersal, taking into account a time for viability of the particles of 2 h. The analysis of results showed a tendency in dispersals in the south-east and south-west directions, with probable travelling distances of 2.2 to 20 km with the highest concentration of particles that corresponded to 1.0 e-13 mg m-3, proving that these can travel distances greater than 300 and 500 m, which are assumed as biosafety measures.
