Dynamic model to analyses the construction cycle of affordable housing in the metropolitan area of San Luis Potosí, México
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abstract
Housing is one of the most dynamic markets in cities. However, low-income housing in Mexico, whose acquisition is subsidized by the public sector, does not behave the same and is in constant deficit. The objective of this research is to identify and project into the future the most important variables that intervene in the construction cycle of this type of housing in the Metropolitan Area of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. This is a prospective study that estimates possible future scenarios with specialized simulation software. The study variables were identified from the literature review and interviews with experts. Subsequently, these were projected for 20 years using a dynamic cyclical structure model. The results of the study show that the variable of greatest interference is the price per square meter of land, which rises in relation to its availability and increases the housing price. If this variable maintains its increasing trend, building affordable housing in the study area will not be feasible in the next five years. If, on the other hand, the availability of land is increased by 35%25, the trend in the price of land will decrease by 10%25 and that of housing by 5%25, increasing its affordability. This situation demands public policies that promote access to affordable land for the construction of inexpensive housing for underprivileged strata of the population.
